American Athletic Conference Preview
Cincinnati Bearcats (2021/13-1/1st) – Cincinnati enjoyed a historic season in becoming the first Group of 5 school to reach the CFP. Luke Fickell’s club lost a lot of talent, including their highest draft pick ever in Ahmad ‘Sauce’ Gardner. There are still enough quality players to keep this team in contention for the league title again. A veteran OL will be the rock for the unit and will give them time to find a replacement for QB Desmond Ridder. The defense returns all-AAC LB Deshawn Pace, but the secondary will have to replace three NFL draftees. The Bearcats will take a step back but remain one of the league’s best programs.
East Carolina Pirates (2021/7-5/T3rd) – East Carolina enjoyed a turnaround season, finishing 7-5 before having their bowl game canceled in a disappointing conclusion. Holton Ahlers returns to pilot the offense and the passing game could be very explosive. Ahlers took too many hits last year, so the Pirates are hoping a couple of transfers will improve the pass protection. The defense doesn’t have many stars, but some underclassmen got playing time last year and should be better this time around. The Pirates do not have the talent base of either Cincinnati or Houston but they can be a sleeper team finishing in the upper half of the AAC,
Houston Cougars (2021/12-2/2nd) – The Cougars had an outstanding 2021 season with a 12-2 record including a bowl game victory over Auburn. Dana Holgorsen has the league’s best QB in Clayton Tune and maybe the best receiver in Nathaniel ‘Tank’ Dell. Kesean Carter and freshman Matthew Golden help round out an elite group of receivers. DC Doug Belk had one of the nation’s best defenses and despite the loss of standout DL Logan Hall, they are poised to be top notch once again. The secondary, led by Hassan Hypolite, will be one of the best in the league. Houston has the talent to win the conference title, and if the schedule breaks right, they could contend for the playoff.
Memphis Tigers (2021/6-6/T7th) – The Tigers had a middling campaign ending in a 6-6 mark and no bowl game. The offense features sophomore QB Seth Henigan coming off an impressive freshman season, but with his two top targets leaving, the Tigers will more heavily lean on their running game thanks to an experienced offensive line. The defense was mediocre, and the secondary got shelled on a weekly basis. Jaylon Allen led the team with five sacks last season and will need to be more productive to take pressure off the back end. This Memphis figures to be a middle of the pack club again, and a bowl game would be a positive development for this season.
Navy Midshipmen (2021/4-8/T7th) – Navy’s 4-8 record obviously speaks to a poor season, but the Midshipmen lost half of their games by a touchdown or less. The option offense generated less than 4 yards per carry last season, so they will be looking for more explosive plays to jump start clock killing drives. QB Tai Lavatai brings experience to the position, and even hit 56% of his passes in the triple option attack. The OL returns both tackles but will need help on the interior. The defense returns six starters from a unit that finished third in the conference but needs to generate more pass rush to prevent foes from beating up the secondary. If the Middies can run the ball more effectively, they can be a sleeper and a dangerous opponent for the league’s upper echelon teams.
SMU Mustangs (2021/8-4/6th) – SMU finds their program in an interesting place, coming off a 6-6 season but trying to position themselves to compete in the new AAC minus Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF. Former OC Rhett Lashlee returns as the new head coach replacing TCU-bound Sonny Dykes. The offense led the league in scoring and YPG, with veteran QB Tanner Mordecai back to lead the way. Leading receiver Rashee Rice and leading runner Tre Siggers are back as well. The Mustang defense struggled to stop the pass, but the front three led by Elijah Chatman can get to the passer and aid the inexperienced secondary. SMU has the talent to compete with the top teams in the league, but will need more consistency on defense.
South Florida Bulls (2021/2-10/T9th) – The Bulls have fallen far from the headier days of 2016-17 where they won 21 games over two seasons. Jeff Scott, in his third season as head coach, was hired to restore the offense but the unit ranked in the bottom half of the league last year. QB Timmy McClain got significant time as a freshman, but he will be challenged by Baylor transfer Gerry Bohannon. The offensive line is experienced and should be fine, but more big plays will be needed from the skill positions. Defensively, nine starters will be back, but the run defense was woeful. The D-line added five transfers and should be much improved. USF is relying largely on the transfer portal for improvements, but real progress may be a year away.
Temple Owls (2021/3-9/T9th) – Temple is a program in a rut after a 3-9 season followed by a shortened 1-6 2020 campaign. First-year head coach Stan Drayton’s top task is to crank up an offense that struggled to score. Drayton made a name as a running back coach, so he will look to sophomore Edward Haydee to lead the way. Both QBs are transfers and will compete in fall camp for the starting job. The defensive line did yeoman’s work getting in opposing backfields and will set the pace for a defense that battled hard last season and hopes to be even better. Temple is in a rebuilding phase and will need to recruit more talent to compete in the AAC going forward.
Tulane Green Wave (2021/2-10/T9th) – After three straight bowl appearances, Tulane flopped in 2021 tumbling to a 2-10 record. The offensive line struggled in pass protection but with four starters back, there is expectation for significant improvement. Michael Pratt played at QB despite the line issues, and with better protection, he could flourish. The defense allowed 34 PPG but there is reason for optimism this year with the return of players like DE Darius Hodges who registered 16.5 TFL, and MLB Dorian Williams, a speedy playmaker. Coach Willie Fritz rebuilt this program before, so Green Wave fans have hope for reestablishing this team going forward
Tulsa Golden Hurricane (2021/7-6/T3rd) – Tulsa had a roller coaster season, starting the year 3-6 before finishing with 4 straight victories including a bowl game win. On the offensive side, both tackles left for the NFL and there is only one starter returning to campus. If the line can be quickly rebuilt, QB Davis Brin should play well, though he must cut back on the turnovers. The secondary is the strength of the defense with all-AAC CB Tyon Davis and three experienced safeties. The front seven will rely on transfers for a quick infusion of talent. The Golden Hurricane will need quick turnabouts on both lines in order to compete at the higher end of the conference.
UCF Golden Knights (2021/9-4/T3rd) – The bar has been set so high for UCF that a 9-4 record was considered disappointing though the Knights did earn some bragging rights via a bowl win over Florida. Gus Malzahn, in his second year as head coach, has a slew of returning veterans on offense. Mikey Keene did a nice in place replacing the injured Dillon Gabriel, and with Gabriel gone, Keene should really flourish. Isaiah Bowser is a physical back, and top receiver Ryan O’Keefe is back as well. The defensive front should be fortified with major transfers, and the secondary is the strength of the unit highlighted by all-AAC safety Quadric Bullard. UCF has the opportunity and the talent to challenge Houston and Cincinnati in their final season in the AAC
Standings Projections
1. Houston Cougars (11-1, 8-0) | Season Win Total – 9 | Bet the Over
2. Cincinnati Bearcats (10-2, 7-1) | Season Win Total – 9 | Bet the Over
3. UCF Golden Knights (10-2, 6-2) | Season Win Total – 8.5 | Bet the Over
T4. Memphis Tigers (7-5, 4-4) | Season Win Total – 7.5 | Bet the Under
T4. Navy Midshipmen (6-6, 4-4) | Season Win Total – 4.5 | Bet the Over
T4. SMU Mustangs (6-6, 4-4) | Season Win Total – 7 | Bet the Under
T7. Tulane Green Wave (6-6, 3-5) | Season Win Total – 5.5 | Bet the Over
T7. East Carolina Pirates (5-7, 3-5) | Season Win Total – 6.5 | Bet the Under
T7. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (5-7, 3-5) | Season Win Total – 6 | Bet the Under
10. South Florida Bulls (3-9, 2-6) | Season Win Total – 4.5 | Bet the Under
11. Temple Owls (2-10, 0-8) | Season Win Total – 2.5 | Bet the Under
Conference Championship: Houston over Cincinnati
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